October 1st, 2017

With Several Wrong Predictions Behind Me, Here’s One I Got Right

As I’ve mentioned before, I’ve been wrong on several predictions that ultimately came to pass.

Whoppingly wrong.

A partial list:

  • Cameras in cellphones are a short-lived gimmick. My kids still tease me about that one.
  • Buying clothing — and especially shoes — on the internet will never catch on. C’mon, you can’t try things on! How do you know if they fit?
  • Avatar will be a huge bomb. Great special effects, but it cost over $200 million to make, has a silly story, and shallow characters. Who will pay to see that?
  • A certain loud-mouthed businessman with a bad comb-over will never become President. Enough said.

However, when I wrote this summer that we might be at the end of HCV drug development, it turned out to be pretty spot-on.

Since then, two companies have ended their HCV drug development programs, one in early September, then another last week. You can read more about the business reasons here, but the simple medical reason is that it would be an enormous challenge to improve on what we have now — which is good news for our patients, provided remaining access issues can be resolved.

And by 2027, all of us will be traveling cross country on Segways.

You read it here first.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3BeAu1pjIc]

(Stick around for the surprise ending in Coney Island.)


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7 Responses to “With Several Wrong Predictions Behind Me, Here’s One I Got Right”

  1. Jose Gros-Aymerich says:

    Hi!: the most notorious wrong prediction I can recall is the cover in a Newsmagazine (Time?): ‘The myth of heterosexual AIDS’, also, the first letters to NEJM about NY cases of Immune Deficit among Gay, stablishing a possible link to the recreational use of: ‘Amyl Nitrite’= ‘Popper’. In a summer course meeting, El Escorial, Madrid, I asked an AIDS expert about a possible cause in an infectious agent for Aids related Kaposi’s Sarkoma, as a connection existed between KS cases and practice of what Spanish Inquisition called: ‘Osculum infame’, the speaker responded KS was connected to a gene overexpression or mutation. Ho, ho, ho! Regards. Salut +

  2. Jack D. says:

    One of the predictions I have made was that a certain loud-mouthed but caring, competent, and successful businessman with a bad comb-over would one day become President. Thankfully I was correct.
    My point is that there are plenty of Republicans reading these articles. The rule of thumb is stay away from politics – that rule doesn’t change, not even in order to attempt mocking the President.

  3. Susan K. says:

    Thank you Jack D. Great advice for almost all in the sports, entertainment, and health and education venues.

  4. Life says:

    LOL!!! “traveling cross country on Segways”

    What about predicate HIV funcional and final cure? Several great finds this past month in this are that represent huge progress, no?

  5. Professor SayedSubhan Bukhari MD, FRCPath says:

    Perhaps the worst ever prediction of all time is the “millennium bug” which actually never materialized, however, it fooled numerous organizations to buy expensive safeguard software which was completely unnecessary.

    My own favorite prediction which I would like to share with colleagues here is from an old book of scientific predictions which I read when I was medical student more than 20 years ago. The predictions said that in 21st century scientists would have invented “intelligent robots” that will take over all of our household chores and most of our office work and as result the human race will be free to enjoy a 3-day weekend”. Utter disappointment!

    Kind regards


  6. John M. says:

    I think that Jack and Susan are too thin skinned. I enjoy ALL aspects of your blog!

HIV Information: Author Paul Sax, M.D.

Paul E. Sax, MD

Contributing Editor

NEJM Journal Watch
Infectious Diseases

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