An ongoing dialogue on HIV/AIDS, infectious diseases,
October 1st, 2017
With Several Wrong Predictions Behind Me, Here’s One I Got Right
As I’ve mentioned before, I’ve been wrong on several predictions that ultimately came to pass.
A partial list:
- Cameras in cellphones are a short-lived gimmick. My kids still tease me about that one.
- Buying clothing — and especially shoes — on the internet will never catch on. C’mon, you can’t try things on! How do you know if they fit?
- Avatar will be a huge bomb. Great special effects, but it cost over $200 million to make, has a silly story, and shallow characters. Who will pay to see that?
- A certain loud-mouthed businessman with a bad comb-over will never become President. Enough said.
However, when I wrote this summer that we might be at the end of HCV drug development, it turned out to be pretty spot-on.
Since then, two companies have ended their HCV drug development programs, one in early September, then another last week. You can read more about the business reasons here, but the simple medical reason is that it would be an enormous challenge to improve on what we have now — which is good news for our patients, provided remaining access issues can be resolved.
And by 2027, all of us will be traveling cross country on Segways.
You read it here first.
(Stick around for the surprise ending in Coney Island.)